Climate Vulnerability, Livelihood Assets, and Adaptive Capacity of Rain-Fed Smallholder Farming Systems in Kaduna State, Nigeria: A Mixed-Methods Analysis

Abstract

Smallholder farming systems in Kaduna State, northern Nigeria, are increasingly exposed to climate stressors including rainfall variability, drought, flooding and rising temperature. Yet the intersection of climate vulnerability and livelihood assets, two analytically distinct but practically inseparable dimensions remains underexplored at the sub-national level. This study integrates Climate Vulnerability Theory (CVT) and Sustainable Livelihoods Theory (SLT) to examine how climate change affects the five livelihood asset categories of smallholder farmers and what this means for adaptive capacity and agricultural resilience. A convergent mixed-methods design was employed: structured questionnaires were administered to 180 smallholder farmers across three agro-ecological zones of Kaduna State, supplemented by key informant interviews with extension officers and institutional stakeholders. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics and the chi-square test; qualitative data were thematically analysed. Findings reveal that financial and natural capital are most severely eroded by climate stress (84% and 78% of respondents, respectively), while irrigation adoption, the most effective adaptation strategy reaches only 29% of farmers. Finance access emerged as the dominant barrier (89%), followed by poor extension coverage (76%) and weak climate information reach (71%). The study concludes that adaptive capacity among Kaduna's smallholders is structurally constrained, not individually deficient, and calls for institutional reforms targeting the finance-extension-information nexus. The findings contribute a theoretically grounded, empirically derived framework for strengthening climate-resilient smallholder agriculture in Nigeria's climate-vulnerable north.