The Carbon Footprint Paradox: CO2 Emissions, Regulatory Gaps, and Mitigation Pathways of AI-Powered Data Centres in Nigeria

JEFFREY Tersugh Chinyam, MOHAMMED Jibril, I. Y. Chindo, MUDATHIR Qossim

Abstract


Data centre emissions are still relatively small compared to large sectors such as electricity generation and industry. However, there is pressure on power supplies and water resources and this has made AI to be considered potential to cut emissions in other areas and could offset many times its own carbon footprint when used effectively. The study aimed to of assess the environmental footprint of AI-powered data centres in Nigeria, with a particular emphasis on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, which was structured across three complementary analytical levels namely; the macro-level, which focused on national CO₂ emissions projections under various electricity demand and power mix scenarios; the meso-level, which conducts state-by-state siting analysis using spatial data on renewable energy potential, grid stability, and policy framework, the micro-level, which develops facility-specific emissions profiles for selected Nigerian data centre operators and multi-level approach that ensures the findings are directly relevant and actionable for national policymakers, state governments, and private sector operators. The results shows that natural gas as the dominant source of electricity generation in the dataset, with an average quarterly output of 18.4 billion kWh, accounting for 75.4% of total generation. The OLS Linear Regression model achieved the best performance, with an R² of 0.996, RMSE of 0.65 MMT CO₂, MAE of 0.51 MMT CO₂, and a maximum prediction error of just 0.98% while projected that CO₂ emissions from data centres in Nigeria will increase rapidly across all scenarios, with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) ranging from 15.2% (Low demand, NDC Conditional) to 57.7% (High demand, Reference Mix). In conclusion, this study demonstrates that AI-powered data centres in Nigeria are on a trajectory to become a materially significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, e-waste, and water consumption in the near future and recommend that Nigeria’s next Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) should formally incorporate the data centre sector and establish a specific emissions intensity.


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